Understanding the present requires revisiting the lessons of the past and reopening the pages of history. The turmoil now engulfing the region as a result of the Iranian war cannot be viewed merely as a fast-moving present that is difficult to define or document. Today’s events unfold in real time across television screens, digital platforms, and endless commentary from analysts, experts, and even those with little understanding who nonetheless insist on offering their “visions.”Yet many observers overlook essential realities that must be connected to fully understand what is happening, assess its impact, and anticipate its consequences. Chief among these realities is the recognition that the current regional landscape emerged from a defining moment: October 7, 2023. That event set in motion a new strategic scenario aimed first at dismantling Iran’s regional proxies and later confronting Iran itself in an effort to sever what many viewed as the head of the snake driving this bloody regional project.It was increasingly evident that the events of late 2023 would mark the beginning of Iran’s inevitable decline after decades of pursuing a strategy of provoking instability and “disturbing the hornet’s nest” across the Arab world in order to weaken states and fracture societies.The October 7 attack triggered the most devastating war Gaza had witnessed in decades and led to the elimination of many of Hamas’ leaders. The conflict did not stop even after Hamas — heavily backed by Iran — became incapable of governing Gaza or launching effective military operations. Once it became clear that Hamas could no longer return to power in Gaza, attention shifted toward dismantling another pillar of Iranian influence: Hezbollah in Lebanon.That campaign escalated into extensive Israeli military operations targeting Hezbollah positions across Beirut, the southern suburbs, and other parts of Lebanon, even at the cost of occupying large areas of southern Lebanon. Regional security observers believe Hezbollah suffered a decisive strategic blow beginning with the explosion of communication devices carried by its members in what became known as the “pager operation,” culminating in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior figures.The effort to dismantle Iranian influence soon expanded into Yemen, where the Houthis continued implementing Tehran’s agenda of destabilizing the region, particularly by threatening commercial navigation in the Red Sea. Iran revived its longstanding strategy of turning the Red Sea into a zone of disruption and insecurity in order to inflict economic damage on countries dependent on the waterway for transporting oil and goods. As a result, many international shipping routes were forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, dramatically increasing fuel, insurance, and transportation costs.Three years after the events of 2023, it would have been naïve for Iran to assume it would remain beyond the reach of direct confrontation. Signs of escalation had already become visible during the 12-day war of June 2025. Yet Tehran failed to alter course, apparently believing it could strike at the United States indirectly by targeting Gulf states traditionally aligned with Washington. That calculation proved catastrophic, resulting in widespread destruction of Iran’s infrastructure and the elimination of senior leadership figures from the Islamic Republic — from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to key military and Revolutionary Guard commanders — alongside major damage to Iran’s military capabilities. Many remaining figures within the Iranian establishment reportedly retreated into hiding.The post-1979 system now appears increasingly incapable of defending itself effectively. Even the missiles and drones launched toward Gulf states in attempts to ignite oil infrastructure have largely been intercepted by advanced regional air defense systems. Nevertheless, some Iranian leaders still seem convinced history can repeat itself and that the regime may eventually rebuild and revive its old ambitions of regional dominance, destabilization, and intimidation of Gulf energy producers.Against this backdrop, the Gulf states’ demands remain clear and consistent. They seek binding international guarantees preventing attacks against the region, the restoration of unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the inclusion of regional actors in any agreement between Washington and Tehran, the removal of remaining Iranian influence in several Arab countries, and firm safeguards regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.This is also an appropriate moment to recognize the extensive efforts led by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, modernize military capabilities, and deepen strategic alliances with global partners, particularly the United States.Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, despite continued Iranian provocations, remain committed to confronting threats against regional stability. Iran’s recent escalation and its violation of the ceasefire through missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates once again demonstrated the volatility of the situation. Saudi Arabia responded swiftly, condemning the attacks, reaffirming solidarity with the UAE, and simultaneously calling for restraint, support for Pakistani mediation efforts, and a political solution that prevents the region from sliding into wider conflict.What remains clear is that the Iranian regime will likely continue maneuvering and projecting defiance. Yet despite its rhetoric and military posturing, many now view these actions less as signs of strength than as the final movements of a system struggling to preserve its influence.Ultimately, the era of unchecked interventionism, ideological expansion, and the export of revolution appears increasingly unsustainable. Tehran has already begun extending a hand toward what it once called the “Great Satan,” entering direct and indirect negotiations with Washington that helped secure a ceasefire and produce a preliminary framework agreement delivered through Pakistani mediation. The focus now turns to Tehran’s response, particularly after President Trump agreed — following requests from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other states — to suspend “Project Freedom,” the military operation aimed at restoring full control over the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing the return of international maritime navigation to its pre-February 28 status.The coming hours may determine whether Iran chooses escalation once again — or finally accepts the reality of a profoundly changed regional order.Understanding the present requires revisiting the lessons of the past and reopening the pages of history. The turmoil now engulfing the region as a result of the Iranian war cannot be viewed merely as a fast-moving present that is difficult to define or document. Today’s events unfold in real time across television screens, digital platforms, and endless commentary from analysts, experts, and even those with little understanding who nonetheless insist on offering their “visions.”Yet many observers overlook essential realities that must be connected to fully understand what is happening, assess its impact, and anticipate its consequences. Chief among these realities is the recognition that the current regional landscape emerged from a defining moment: October 7, 2023. That event set in motion a new strategic scenario aimed first at dismantling Iran’s regional proxies and later confronting Iran itself in an effort to sever what many viewed as the head of the snake driving this bloody regional project.It was increasingly evident that the events of late 2023 would mark the beginning of Iran’s inevitable decline after decades of pursuing a strategy of provoking instability and “disturbing the hornet’s nest” across the Arab world in order to weaken states and fracture societies.The October 7 attack triggered the most devastating war Gaza had witnessed in decades and led to the elimination of many of Hamas’ leaders. The conflict did not stop even after Hamas — heavily backed by Iran — became incapable of governing Gaza or launching effective military operations. Once it became clear that Hamas could no longer return to power in Gaza, attention shifted toward dismantling another pillar of Iranian influence: Hezbollah in Lebanon.That campaign escalated into extensive Israeli military operations targeting Hezbollah positions across Beirut, the southern suburbs, and other parts of Lebanon, even at the cost of occupying large areas of southern Lebanon. Regional security observers believe Hezbollah suffered a decisive strategic blow beginning with the explosion of communication devices carried by its members in what became known as the “pager operation,” culminating in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior figures.The effort to dismantle Iranian influence soon expanded into Yemen, where the Houthis continued implementing Tehran’s agenda of destabilizing the region, particularly by threatening commercial navigation in the Red Sea. Iran revived its longstanding strategy of turning the Red Sea into a zone of disruption and insecurity in order to inflict economic damage on countries dependent on the waterway for transporting oil and goods. As a result, many international shipping routes were forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, dramatically increasing fuel, insurance, and transportation costs.Three years after the events of 2023, it would have been naïve for Iran to assume it would remain beyond the reach of direct confrontation. Signs of escalation had already become visible during the 12-day war of June 2025. Yet Tehran failed to alter course, apparently believing it could strike at the United States indirectly by targeting Gulf states traditionally aligned with Washington. That calculation proved catastrophic, resulting in widespread destruction of Iran’s infrastructure and the elimination of senior leadership figures from the Islamic Republic — from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to key military and Revolutionary Guard commanders — alongside major damage to Iran’s military capabilities. Many remaining figures within the Iranian establishment reportedly retreated into hiding.The post-1979 system now appears increasingly incapable of defending itself effectively. Even the missiles and drones launched toward Gulf states in attempts to ignite oil infrastructure have largely been intercepted by advanced regional air defense systems. Nevertheless, some Iranian leaders still seem convinced history can repeat itself and that the regime may eventually rebuild and revive its old ambitions of regional dominance, destabilization, and intimidation of Gulf energy producers.Against this backdrop, the Gulf states’ demands remain clear and consistent. They seek binding international guarantees preventing attacks against the region, the restoration of unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the inclusion of regional actors in any agreement between Washington and Tehran, the removal of remaining Iranian influence in several Arab countries, and firm safeguards regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.This is also an appropriate moment to recognize the extensive efforts led by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, modernize military capabilities, and deepen strategic alliances with global partners, particularly the United States.Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, despite continued Iranian provocations, remain committed to confronting threats against regional stability. Iran’s recent escalation and its violation of the ceasefire through missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates once again demonstrated the volatility of the situation. Saudi Arabia responded swiftly, condemning the attacks, reaffirming solidarity with the UAE, and simultaneously calling for restraint, support for Pakistani mediation efforts, and a political solution that prevents the region from sliding into wider conflict.What remains clear is that the Iranian regime will likely continue maneuvering and projecting defiance. Yet despite its rhetoric and military posturing, many now view these actions less as signs of strength than as the final movements of a system struggling to preserve its influence.Ultimately, the era of unchecked interventionism, ideological expansion, and the export of revolution appears increasingly unsustainable. Tehran has already begun extending a hand toward what it once called the “Great Satan,” entering direct and indirect negotiations with Washington that helped secure a ceasefire and produce a preliminary framework agreement delivered through Pakistani mediation. The focus now turns to Tehran’s response, particularly after President Trump agreed — following requests from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other states — to suspend “Project Freedom,” the military operation aimed at restoring full control over the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing the return of international maritime navigation to its pre-February 28 status.The coming hours may determine whether Iran chooses escalation once again — or finally accepts the reality of a profoundly changed regional order.
